We propose a novel indicator to capture pressures that arise at the global supply chain level, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI).

We propose measures of financial market stress for forty-six countries and regions across the world and we show that financial stress shocks, irrespective of the source of the shock, have significant impact on global economic activity, but in particular that emerging market economies are usually hit more severely than advanced economies.

We revisit the macroeconomic impact of the recent rise in trade policy uncertainty, and identify an alternative business sentiment channel that is separate and distinct from the impact of trade policy uncertainty.

This paper examines the interaction between inflation expectations and nominal and real macroeconomic variables for the United Kingdom through a Markov-switching structural vector autoregressive framework with variants of the sign restriction identification scheme to back out the time-varying effect of different structural shocks.

This paper suggests a way to perform parsimonious instrumental variables estimation in the presence of many, and potentially weak, instruments, which yields consistent estimates when the set of instrumental variables complies with a strong, weak or nonexistent factor structure.

This paper attempts to describe the observed inflation dynamics in the United Kingdom, the United States and the euro area with a sequence of New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) equations that are log-linearised around different, non-zero, steady-state inflation levels.

Estimated central bank policy rules indicate that there were substantial differences between systematic monetary policy in Germany and in the United Kingdom, as well as shifts in systematic monetary policy in the United Kingdom, and the paper analyses the implications of these estimated rules for real exchange rate behaviour in an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model.

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the decomposition of UK real exchange rates into the relative price of traded goods and the ratio of the relative price of non-traded to traded goods, and tests the prediction that deviations from the law of one price in tradable goods dominate real exchange rate variability only in the short run.

In this paper a likelihood-based multivariate unit root testing framework is utilized to test whether the real exchange rates of G10 countries are non-stationary.