In this post, we use correlations of weekly oil price changes with a broad array of financial variables to quantify that the oil price decline since mid-2015 is due to a mix of weaker demand and increased supply, followed by assessing their impact on U.S. economic activity. Published on Liberty Street Economics, May 02 2016.
In this post, we use correlations of oil price changes with a broad array of financial variables to confirm that this recent fall in oil prices has been mostly the result of increased global oil supply. We then use a model to assess how this supply shock will affect U.S. economic conditions in 2015. Published on Liberty Street Economics, June 08 2015.
In this post, we argue that unusually adverse winter weather, rather than imperfect seasonal adjustment by the BEA, was an important factor behind the weak first-quarter GDP data. Published on Liberty Street Economics, June 08 2015.