Time-Varying Inflation Expectations and Economic Fluctuations in the United Kingdom: A Structural VAR Analysis

This paper examines the interaction between inflation expectations and nominal and real macroeconomic variables for the United Kingdom through a Markov-switching structural vector autoregressive framework with variants of the sign restriction identification scheme to back out the time-varying effect of different structural shocks.

June 2010 · Alina Barnett, Jan J. J. Groen, Haroon Mumtaz