In this post, we combine the demand and supply oil price decomposition from the New York Fed’s Oil Price Dynamics Report with yield curve data to quantify the likely path of inflation in the United States and the euro area over the next twelve months. Published on Liberty Street Economics, June 24 2022.
In this post, we review GSCPI readings through April 2022 and briefly discuss the drivers of recent moves in the index. Published on Liberty Street Economics, May 18 2022.
We propose a novel indicator to capture pressures that arise at the global supply chain level, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI).
In this post, we review GSCPI readings through February 2022 and we use the index’s underlying data to discuss the drivers of recent moves in the GSCPI. Published on Liberty Street Economics, March 03 2022.
In this post, we provide an assessment of the drivers of U.S. inflation where we exploit the link among different measures of inflation at the country level and a number of global supply side variables to uncover which common cross-country forces have been driving observed inflation. Published on Liberty Street Economics, January 28 2022.
In this post, we utilize the demand and supply decomposition from the New York Fed’s Oil Price Dynamics Report to argue that most of the oil price increase over the past year or so has reflected improving global demand expectations and explore what changing global demand expectations might mean for near-term global inflation developments. Published on Liberty Street Economics, October 04 2021.
This posts reviews the key challenges in inflation forecasting and discusses some recent developments that attempt to deal with these challenges. Published on Liberty Street Economics, November 05 2014.