In this post, we utilize the demand and supply decomposition from the New York Fed’s Oil Price Dynamics Report to argue that most of the oil price increase over the past year or so has reflected improving global demand expectations and explore what changing global demand expectations might mean for near-term global inflation developments. Published on Liberty Street Economics, October 04 2021.
In this post, we compare recent oil price declines with those seen in previous oil price collapses, focusing on the drivers of such episodes. Published on Liberty Street Economics, May 14 2020.
In this post, we use correlations of weekly oil price changes with a broad array of financial variables to quantify that the oil price decline since mid-2015 is due to a mix of weaker demand and increased supply, followed by assessing their impact on U.S. economic activity. Published on Liberty Street Economics, May 02 2016.
In this post, we use correlations of oil price changes with a broad array of financial variables to confirm that this recent fall in oil prices has been mostly the result of increased global oil supply. We then use a model to assess how this supply shock will affect U.S. economic conditions in 2015. Published on Liberty Street Economics, June 08 2015.
In this post, we describe an approach for decomposing oil price changes into supply and demand shocks using financial market data. Published on Liberty Street Economics, March 25 2013.