In this post, we combine the demand and supply oil price decomposition from the New York Fed’s Oil Price Dynamics Report with yield curve data to quantify the likely path of inflation in the United States and the euro area over the next twelve months. Published on Liberty Street Economics, June 24 2022.

In this post, we review GSCPI readings through April 2022 and briefly discuss the drivers of recent moves in the index. Published on Liberty Street Economics, May 18 2022.

In this post, we review GSCPI readings through February 2022 and we use the index’s underlying data to discuss the drivers of recent moves in the GSCPI. Published on Liberty Street Economics, March 03 2022.

In this post, we provide an assessment of the drivers of U.S. inflation where we exploit the link among different measures of inflation at the country level and a number of global supply side variables to uncover which common cross-country forces have been driving observed inflation. Published on Liberty Street Economics, January 28 2022.

In this post, we propose a new gauge, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), which integrates a number of commonly used metrics with an aim to provide a more comprehensive summary of potential disruptions affecting global supply chains. Published on Liberty Street Economics, January 04 2022.

In this post, we parse out the domestic component of a Chinese financial stress measure to evaluate the downside risk to future economic activity. Published on Liberty Street Economics, November 23 2021.

In this post, we utilize the demand and supply decomposition from the New York Fed’s Oil Price Dynamics Report to argue that most of the oil price increase over the past year or so has reflected improving global demand expectations and explore what changing global demand expectations might mean for near-term global inflation developments. Published on Liberty Street Economics, October 04 2021.

In this post, we compare recent oil price declines with those seen in previous oil price collapses, focusing on the drivers of such episodes. Published on Liberty Street Economics, May 14 2020.

In this post, we use correlations of weekly oil price changes with a broad array of financial variables to quantify that the oil price decline since mid-2015 is due to a mix of weaker demand and increased supply, followed by assessing their impact on U.S. economic activity. Published on Liberty Street Economics, May 02 2016.

In this post, we use correlations of oil price changes with a broad array of financial variables to confirm that this recent fall in oil prices has been mostly the result of increased global oil supply. We then use a model to assess how this supply shock will affect U.S. economic conditions in 2015. Published on Liberty Street Economics, June 08 2015.

In this post, we argue that unusually adverse winter weather, rather than imperfect seasonal adjustment by the BEA, was an important factor behind the weak first-quarter GDP data. Published on Liberty Street Economics, June 08 2015.

This post revisits the 2013 Taper Tantrum episode by measuring the impact of changes in Fed’s expected policy rate path and in the economic outlook on the U.S. dollar and emerging market equity prices and it finds that changes in the global outlook had a meaningful role in explaining global asset price movements during that period. Published on Liberty Street Economics, December 08 2014.

This posts reviews the key challenges in inflation forecasting and discusses some recent developments that attempt to deal with these challenges. Published on Liberty Street Economics, November 05 2014.

In this post, we look back at global asset market developments over the Tapr Tantrum past summer, and measure how changes in global risk aversion affected the values of carry-trade currencies and emerging market equities between May and September of last year and how the initial signal of a possible change in U.S. monetary policy raised global risk aversion. Published on Liberty Street Economics, March 05 2014.

We propose a solution to the lack of a long history of U.S. TIPS rates by using the relationship between TIPS yields and other data with a longer history to construct synthetic TIPS rates going back to 1971. Published on Liberty Street Economics, August 21 2013.

In this post, we describe an approach for decomposing oil price changes into supply and demand shocks using financial market data. Published on Liberty Street Economics, March 25 2013.

In this post, we examine the role of market uncertainty and currency risk premia in the pace and size of episodes of dollar weakness since 1991. Published on Liberty Street Economics, September 26 2011.

In this post, we consider different strategies to forecast near-term commodity price inflation, but find that no particular approach is systematically more accurate and robust. Published on Liberty Street Economics, June 27 2011.