Jan J. J. Groen
Publications
Working Papers
Macro Market Notes
More Market/Policy Views
2022
June
How Could Oil Price and Policy Rate Hikes Affect the Near-Term Inflation Outlook?
May
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: May 2022 Update
The GSCPI: A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures
March
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: March 2022 Update
January
The Global Supply Side of Inflationary Pressures
A New Barometer for Global Supply Chain Pressures
2021
November
Is Higher Financial Stress Lurking Around the Corner for China?
October
Oil Prices, Global Demand Expectations, and Near-Term Global Inflation
2020
October
Alternative Indicators for Chinese Economic Activity Using Sparse PLS Regression
September
Measuring Global Financial Market Stresses
May
Putting the Current Oil Price Collapse into Historical Perspective
March
Uncertainty about Trade Policy Uncertainty
2016
August
Revisiting Useful Approaches to Data-Rich Macroeconomic Forecasting
May
Lower Oil Prices and U.S. Economic Activity
2015
June
Is Cheaper Oil Good News or Bad News for the U.S. Economy?
The Myth of First-Quarter Residual Seasonality
2014
December
Global Asset Prices and the Taper Tantrum Revisited
November
Forecasting Inflation with Fundamentals … It’s Hard!
March
Risk Aversion, Global Asset Prices, and Fed Tightening Signals
Discussion on Forecasting Commodity Price Indexes Using Macroeconomic and Financial Predictors
2013
August
Creating a History of U.S. Inflation Expectations
March
A New Approach for Identifying Demand and Supply Shocks in the Oil Market
Multivariate Methods for Monitoring Structural Change
February
Model Selection Criteria for Factor-Augmented Regressions
January
Real-Time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World
2011
September
An Examination of U.S. Dollar Declines
June
How Easy Is It to Forecast Commodity Prices?
April
Financial Amplification of Foreign Exchange Risk Premia
February
Commodity Prices, Commodity Currencies, and Global Economic Developments
2010
June
Time-Varying Inflation Expectations and Economic Fluctuations in the United Kingdom: A Structural VAR Analysis
2009
August
Parsimonious Instrumental Variable Estimation with Many Instruments
March
A Real Time Evaluation of Bank of England Forecasts of Inflation and Growth
2008
May
Investigating the Structural Stability of the Phillips Curve Trade-Off
2006
February
Asset Price-Based Estimates of Sterling Exchange Rate Risk Premia
2005
June
Exchange Rate Predictability and Monetary Fundamentals in a Small Multi-Country Panel
2004
October
Corporate Credit, Stock Price Inflation and Economic Fluctuations
Real Exchange Rate Persistence and Systematic Monetary Policy Behaviour
June
Real Exchange Rates and the Relative Prices of Non-Traded and Traded Goods: An Empirical Analysis
2003
April
Likelihood-Based Cointegration Analysis in Panels of Vector Error Correction Models
2002
October
Cointegration and the Monetary Exchange Rate Model Revisited
2000
December
The Monetary Exchange Rate Model as a Long-Run Phenomenon
March
New Multi-Country Evidence on Purchasing Power Parity: Multi-Variate Unit Root Test Results
1999
August
Long Horizon Predictability of Exchange Rates: Is it for Real?